6N: England v Scotland preview: everything needs to point in right direction to keep Calcutta Cup run alive
Yesterday at 03:00 PM
IT’S a fine line between boisterous and boorish, and I didn't so much walk that line as stumble headlong across it and land flat on my face when two years ago I was in the Twickenham nose-bleeds with the boys and surrounded by a sea of white shirts. Drink had been drunk, Duhan did his thing from thehalfway line and we celebrated like we'd won the World Cup.
To their eternal credit, the disappointed English fans didn't give us a second glance. The next day there was the usual buyers' remorse; no fool like an old fool and all that stuff. I felt a tad sheepish.
Now, two years later, I am returning to Twickenham and glad I gave it big licks last time out because there is no knowing when, or even if, I will get another chance?
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6N: England v Scotland: Darcy Graham decision was no decision at all for Gregor Townsend
Four wins on the bounce over England, one loss in the last seven matches, twin Twickenham victories in the last two trips, means that whatever else they bring to Twickenham, Gregor Townsend's team won't be burdened by any inferiority complex.
First up, credit where it is due. The coach made the right call on the biggest selection crisis he faced by sitting out Darcy Graham. Rugby simply can't afford to see a player knocked into next year one weekend and starting the Calcutta Cup 13 days later no matter who it is … and Graham is a huge loss, an important point of difference between the two teams.
Elsewhere Townsend's selection has shown a certain lack of original thought from a man who displayed almost nothing but as a player. He has persevered with the Jonny Gray and Grant Gilchrist combo in the row despite neither man standing up or standing out in the opening two games. The injured Warriors Scott Cummings and Max Williamson would have stiffened the Scottish spine considerably and, while they are unavailable, Leicester's Cameron Henderson might have been worth a gallop.
Where, you have to ask, can Scotland get a toe-hold in this game? England probably has a small advantage at the set scrum that, with the introduction of Ollie Chessum for the injured bruiser George Martin, is mirrored at the sidelines, unless Luke Cowan-Dickie has a horror show which can't be entirely ruled out.
Scotland have two good jacklers in Jamie Richie and Rory Darge but Ben Earl is no slouch and the Curry twins (the Twindaloos, as they are known in Manchester) are both experts, Tom starts, Ben benches (just to help us remember which is which). Both sides will win turnovers at the breakdown but it seems unlikely that either will have a monopoly.
When it comes to kicking we can expect England to box it plenty because that is Steve Borthwick's calling card. The official stats don’t differentiate between a chip-kick in the midfield and a box-kick (both are short, tactical kicks) but the vast majority are box-kicks and most of them come from the boot of England scrummy Alex Mitchell.
England have kicked 59 short, tactical kicks so far this championship, more than any other side and almost twice as much as Scotland with just 34. You have to think that the Scots will continue to run the ball back at England, especially as they tire, rather than kick it away mindlessly as happened in 2019 before Finn Russell took a unilateral decision to change tactics.
If Scotland just plays England at their own game they will likely lose. They need to speed things up, play broken field rugby, but it's not obvious they
have selected a pack to play at pace?
All of which makes it even more surprising that George Horne can't get a place even on the bench, allegedly because his box kicking is a bit variable. Horne offers an obvious point of difference. The Glasgow scrummy is lightning quick over the first 20 metres and his quick tap-penalties/free-kicks would have tempted the big English forwards to take him early or high and, frankly, either would do if it leads to a card. The six-two split didn't exactly work out well against Ireland and there is no guarantee that it will work in Scotland's favour come Saturday afternoon.
Russell remains Scotland's top trump and if the one time joiner empties his tool box on Saturday afternoon then the visitors are in with a shout. He has underwhelmed thus far in this championship but, as they warn in the financial markets, past performance is no guarantee of future results and it would surprise no one if Russell grabbed this one by the throat and bossed it all the way. He may need to if he wants to start for the Lions.
Scotland will look for space in the wider channels in the knowledge that Marcus Smith, for all his attacking flair, is not an immovable object in defence. If Bundee Aki can leave him for roadkill, so can Duhan. The big South African is an albatross around the neck of these English mariners with six Calcutta Cup tries, including a hat-trick last season. Russell has to get Duhan involved as often as possible because, if the ball doesn't find him, the winger rarely goes looking for it.
But teams must earn the right to move the ball wide by punching holes in the guts of England’s defence and the likes of Jack Dempsey and ZanderFagerson, Gray and Gilchrist will have to perform minor miracles doing exactly that if Russell is to be granted the time and space he needs to unleash Duhan, Blair Kinghorn and Huw Jones.
Nothing that the Scottish pack has done to date suggests they can give their fly-half what he needs to hurt England at home. The Scots habitually save their best for the Calcutta Cup so we have hope … always hope … but little enough expectation.
England by 12.
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