URC analysis: Edinburgh still have play-off fate in own hands despite Benetton blow

03/24/2025 06:00 PM

EDINBURGH’s URC play-off hopes remain in a precarious position after their last-gasp defeat at Benetton on Saturday turned a potential four-point haul into a single-point consolation. Sean Everitt is set to bring most of his senior internationals back to face the Dragons at home on Friday night after they received a post-Six Nations rest last week, and the squad are rightly treating the match against the bottom club as a must-win.

With hooker Dave Cherry and lock Grant Gilchrist among the Scotland players available again, Ewan Ashman and Sam Skinner will be rested, while other big guns such as Pierre Schoeman, Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham are likely to start.

A five-point haul against the Welsh side would be a morale-boosting way to start the remaining block of five regular-season games. Or, to put it another way, if Edinburgh don’t manage to beat the Dragons at home, they really have no business being in the play-offs anyway.

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The capital club’s four remaining games after Friday are, in order, the Sharks at home, Zebre and Connacht away, and then Ulster at home.  All tough, but all winnable.

And, while that 21-18 defeat in Treviso again demonstrated the difficulty Edinburgh have in winning on the road, the good news is that they made not need to. Given how tight the fight for the top-eight places is, and the obvious fact that many of the remaining games will see play-off contenders go head to head, three solid home wins – ideally augmented by a bonus point or two from Parma or Galway – could well be enough.

Or at least, that is the conclusion of The Offside Line‘s strictly unscientific analysis of all the games that are left before the play-offs. Here is how we expect things to pan out:

Top and tail

The current leading quartet – Leinster, Glasgow, the Bulls and the Sharks – look all but certain to hold on to their places and thus guarantee home ties in the quarter-finals. The Warriors will face a tough challenge from the Bulls for second spot, and the meeting of the teams at Scotstoun in the antepenultimate round could be decisive. In fact, a strong late run by the Sharks could even threaten to snatch third place from Franco Smith’s side.

At the other end of the table, the Dragons are at present the only one of the 16 teams without a reasonable hope of making the play-offs. That leaves 11 teams vying for the four remaining places.

The contenders

Taken individually, some of the predictions below may seem harsh. But in such a tight race, with so many seriously attritional matches, something – or someone – has to give.

Cardiff (current position 5th, current points 35) An impressive season to date has seen the team from the capital emerge as the best of the four Welsh representatives. But they face a very tough run-in and could struggle to add significantly to their present tally of points. This weekend sees them travel to Treviso, then they visit Ospreys before playing Munster at home. And their last couple of games are just about the toughest imaginable: the Bulls and Stormers, both away. Predicted points from remaining five games: 9.

Munster (6th, 34) They may be a long way behind leaders Leinster, but a fairly benign run of fixtures suggests that they will at least go into the play-offs as Ireland’s second-best representatives. A derby at Connacht then a home game against the Bulls are followed by a trip to Cardiff then a return home to play Ulster, then finally they are home again, to Benetton. Four wins out of five is not beyond them.  Predicted points from remaining five games: 17.

Ospreys (7th, 33) Three derbies are coming up for the Swansea-based team: at Scarlets, then at home to Cardiff and the Dragons. After that, it’s off to South Africa to face the Sharks and the Lions – not easy places to go if you still need a result or two to get into the top half of the table. Predicted points from remaining five games: 12.

Stormers (8th, 33) With four of their last five games at home, the South Africans could well leap up the table from their present placing on the cusp of qualification to a secure place inside the top eight. They visit Ulster this weekend, but are then back in Cape Town to face Ulster, Benetton, the Dragons and Cardiff. Even if they don’t win at the Kingspan, a considerable points haul is within their grasp. Predicted points from remaining five games: 19.

Ulster (9th, 32) After meeting the Stormers in Belfast this weekend, the team currently just outside the play-off spots visit Leinster, meet the Sharks at home, travel to Munster and finally come to the Hive to take on Edinburgh. It is an unforgiving run of fixtures, and they could end up a bit further out of contention than their present position. Predicted points from remaining five games: 9.

Benetton (10th, 32) Turning one point into four at the death against Edinburgh has given the Italians’ hopes a real boost. Even so, they will be up against it as they bid to climb up at least a couple of rungs. They should win again at home to Cardiff this weekend, but then visit the Lions and Stormers. A home game against Glasgow could be crucial, ad finally they visit Munster. A top-eight place looks too big an ask. Predicted points from remaining five games: 8.

Edinburgh (11th, 31) Inconsistency has been the team’s big weakness, and their form on the road means you would not put too much money on them winning their quarter-final if they get that far. But after the Dragons they are at home to the Sharks, then visit Zebre and Connacht before finishing up at home to Ulster. It will be tight, but if they play to their potential – and yes, that is a big if – they should sneak in to the play-offs. Predicted points from remaining five games: 15.

Connacht (12th, 31) They are just about hanging in there as contenders at the moment, but will have to excel themselves to move up the minimum four places needed. After playing Munster at home, they visit the Stormers and the Lions, then have Edinburgh at home before ending with a trip to Zebre.  Predicted points from remaining five games: 7.

Lions (13th, 30) Like the Sharks, the Johannesburg- based team have four of their last five games at home, and they could well make a late run for the top eight from their present lowly position. That sole away game is at Scotstoun on Saturday, after which they are at home to Benetton, Connacht, Scarlets and Ospreys. Predicted points from remaining five games: 18.

Scarlets (14th, 28) Derbies against the Dragons and Ospreys could yield half a dozen points, but it gets a lot harder after that: home to Leinster, then away to the Lions and Sharks. They are likely to end up further away from the play-offs than they are at the moment.  Predicted points from remaining five games: 7.

Zebre (15th, 27) Away to the Bulls, at home to Glasgow then Edinburgh, away to Leinster and finally home to Connacht. The Italians may well get a reasonable points return from their last quintet of games , but it will not be enough to propel them into the league’s upper half.  Predicted points from remaining five games: 10.

The final reckoning

All of which produces an end-of-season league table that looks like this. Teams that finish level on points will be separated in the first instance by matches won, then by points differential.

1 Leinster 78 points

2 Bulls 65

3 Glasgow 62

4 Sharks 59

5 Stormers 52

6 Munster 51

7 Lions 48

8 Edinburgh 46

9 Ospreys 45

10 Cardiff 44

11 Ulster 41

12 Benetton 41

13 Zebre 40

14 Connact 38

15 Scarlets 35

16 Dragons 16

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The post URC analysis: Edinburgh still have play-off fate in own hands despite Benetton blow appeared first on Scottish Rugby News from The Offside Line.