6N: Scotland v Ireland preview: Hosts are 'due' a win but fate alone will not deliver
Yesterday at 05:10 PM
YOU have to love Homer Simpson. The cartoon everyman once bet money on the Washington Generals, a team whose sole reason for existence is to lose to the Harlem Globetrotters. Always. When asked why he'd backed them, Homer's response was perfect: "They were due!"
Scotland has a decent squad that could, if the cards fall just so, beat Ireland on Sunday. With 10 straight losses you can't deny Gregor Townsend's team are due and still you wouldn't want to bet your first born on a home win. The bookies warn against it, Scotland start at (roughly) 2-1 underdogs.
Ireland has Scotland's number and it's worth asking why, unless you think there is something in the Dublin water/Guinness/poteen that creates supermen players who sweep all before them?
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Ireland are a living, breathing rebuke to Scottish Rugby who were better than them at the end of the amateur era but have fallen so far behind in the last 30 years since that Townsend, who has been in situ since Moses was in primary school, has yet to taste victory in this fixture.
All those years when the Scots were arguing about the structure of the sport, governance, a third pro-team, South African imports, governance, Super 6, executive bonuses or a thousand and one other things, including but not limited to governance, Ireland were preparing for the professional era, perhaps not immediately, but long before their Celtic cousins.
There is a reason the Generals lose … that is their fate in life. But here the analogy fails because there is also a reason that Ireland has beaten Scotland 10 times in succession and it has nothing to do with fate. It is thanks to the Leinster's age-grade pathway that is pretty much perfect. (Now is not the time for details).
For the opening game against England, 15 of the 23 strong Ireland squad came from Leinster schools. Remove the four foreign-born players and Leinster provided 15 of the 19 Irish-born players. We are not losing to Ireland but the Dublin Pale!
These Leinster schools players have been playing high stakes poker since they were 14, so even 21-year-old pivot Sam Prendergast was unfazed by all that first half English intensity. England threw down the gauntlet. Ireland picked it up and whacked them about the chops with it for the entirety of the second half.
The worry is that something similar will happen to Scotland against Ireland. One team that is notorious for poor second halves against a team that is renowned for its kick in the home straight. The Scots may start well but they usually down tools at some point in the game, 80 minute rugby has not been Townsend's calling card, with Cardiff last year and Murrayfield last weekend as evidence, m'Lud.
The smart money says Ireland turns the second half screw and Scotland wilt, although it said the same thing before England played Ireland at Twickenham last year.
Two of England's three tries scored that day came in the wide channels.The other one, where Ben Earl went through the guts of Ireland, only occurred when Peter O'Mahony was kicking his heels in the sin bin. Regardless, England's tries only came after the white forwards had punched huge holes with the ball in hand.
Do Scotland boast the required dynamism in the forward pack to twist Ireland's defence out of shape? The six-two bench split seems to suggest that Townsend's isn't entirely sure himself but he does know where this game will be won and lost.
And on that subject, Ireland look to have most of the trump cards with the likes of Jack Conan and Dan Sheehan, probably the best hooker in the world, starting on the bench. Rory Darge versus Josh van der Flier is one for the purists (and Andy Farrell) but the visitors are far better acclimatised to high altitude than the boys in blue, reigning Six Nations champions and formerly ranked number one in the world.
When Scotland were enjoying a gap month around the Americas last summer, Ireland were playing the world champion Springboks in their own backyard and even sneaked one late win to draw the series; which squad of players do you think benefited most?
Tadhg Furlong and Joe McCathy are missing, for which Scottish fans will give thanks. And having seen numerous Englishmen bounce off Bundee Aki and James Lowe, Scotland can't say they weren't warned. Generals, as the old saying goes, are always fighting the last war rather than the present one but it surely can't happen again … can it?
Ireland's attack will try to isolate Huw Jones and force him to make important tackles in the knowledge that, when it comes to defence, last weekend's hat trick hero is more straw than bricks.
Both teams will likely hoof the ball ‘downtown’ in an effort to play in the right areas of the field. I also imagine that both teams will take the three when they are offered; Scotland would be mad not to. Like Italy last weekend, they must stay in the fight, take this one down to the last quarter at least.
Townsend has made some changes for the better. Pierre Schoeman looked like he was coasting to me. Rory Sutherland may have shortcomings on the field but he brings heaps of attitude that is infectious and Scotland will need all of it and more if they are to triumph.
Jack Dempsey will be asked to empty the tank before being replaced around the 50 minute mark and Tom Jordan was an obvious choice at twelve although he needs to keep his head when the fireworks start … and they will.
There is a long history of bad blood between these two teams, mirrored in Glasgow's ongoing rammy with Munster. O'Mahony is highly combustible and old age, rather than mellowing him, just seems to have made him meaner. Scotland will do their best to provoke him into another yellow card.
The longer it stays close, the more Scotland will believe, and discipline will be key, for both teams.
The problem for Scottish fans is this. Even if their team wins on Sunday afternoon, as they could do if the cards fall their way, Leinster will still boast the best pathway in rugby and the Scots … they will still find something to argue about. Probably governance.
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