6N preview: expect curveballs with pride, Lions' places and gainful employment all on the line

Today at 10:00 AM

I WON’T be persuaded that it's a coincidence, the fact that ‘Dry January’ ends almost exactly in time for the start of the Six Nations. Yes, yes, there is an overlap of perhaps four hours given that France and Wales kick things off on Friday evening but if the worst team in the tourney beats the best in Paris you can guarantee that Dry Jan will come to an abrupt and premature end for anyone sporting a red jersey.

And if that result looks a little unlikely, we know from experience that this old Championship will throw us a curveball or two somewhere along the line. Upsets by their very nature are tricky to pinpoint but I am tempted to opt for England on the opening weekend when Ireland, shorn of the talismanic Andy Farrell,Tadhg Furlong and Joe McCarthy may prove a little vulnerable to an England side that are desperate to shed the ‘nearly team’ tag.

England are due. Italy are underdogs in Edinburgh but it will likely be squeaky bum time for the Scottish fans. Wales are never better than when written off and most of the experts have done exactly that in their final table placings.

Read TOL’s team-by-team previews here:
6N countdown: TOL's Team-by-Team Guide Part 6 – England … according to 'the poacher turned gamekeeper'

6N countdown: TOL's Team-by-Team Guide Part 5 – Ireland … according to 'the veteran journalist'

6N Countdown: TOL's Team-By-Team Guide Part 4 – Italy … according to 'the exiled coach'

6N Countdown: TOL's Team-By-Team Guide Part 3 – Scotland … according to 'the club stalwart'

6N Countdown: TOL's Team-By-Team Guide Part 2 – Wales … according to 'the super-fan'

6N countdown: TOL's Team-by-Team Guide Part 1 – France … according to 'the ex-pro turned top pundit'

In contrast, Ireland are going for the ‘three-peat’ after winning the Grand Slam in 2023 and the Championship, with that one loss to England, last year. If they do finish on top this time, it will be the first time ever any team has achieved a trifecta of tournament wins in the Six, Five or Home Nations eras. The men in green welcome the big threats of England and France to Dublin so, if Simon Easterby can get his players close to their best, it may be enough, but there is a feeling that their phase play is a tad predictable these days. Will the baby-faced, 21-year-old Sam Prendergast add or detract from Ireland’s efforts?

They must travel to Murrayfield to play Scotland in round two but Ireland relish that fixture more than most, winning all ten Tests since Gregor Townsend took over in May, 2017. Might that match offer another upset?

Scotland's campaign will be decided on the opening two weekends of the action. Two wins at Murrayfield against a much improved Italy and then Ireland will see the Scots' fans believing that this may, finally, be the year to dream. Anything less than two wins and the ba's burst, again, with tricky trips to London and Paris in the offing. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if Scotland lost in London but made amends in Paris on the final weekend.

Individual matches are hellish tricky to predict, however there is a consensus of sorts about who will end up where in the final reckonings. Ireland and France should be fighting for the top two spots with Italy and Wales scrapping to avoid the wooden spoon.

Most folk have Scotland and England fighting for the bronze medal position but, in truth, both teams are difficult to pigeon hole; they could each of them top the table or finish in the bottom two places.

Scotland are a settled side with plenty of X-factor and experience in the backs but will the loss of Sione Tuipulotu, Scott Cummings and, my pick of the forwards, Max Williamson, undermine the squad before a ball has been kicked in anger?

I suspect Scotland have the experience to do well and will win those crucial two opening matches against Italy and Ireland. But if the players fixate on who is not there, rather than who is, things could go south pretty quickly, especially if they lose the opening game against Italy which has blue flashing lights all over it. Look at Cardiff last year when the Scots (almost) blew a 27 point lead against a very poor Welsh team. The backs are match winners, almost to a man, the forwards … well … are not.

England are in a similar situation; difficult to know which side turns up? The one that should have beaten the Blacks or the one that lost to the Wallabies?

They are playing well but losing games they should win and some of the issues are plum obvious. The twin centres are a little ordinary but it is England's defence that simply has to improve under Joe El-Abd, one time best man to his boss Steve Borthwick, hard press, soft press or no press. If England leak an average of 3.5 tries per match, as they did in November, both groom and bestie will be toast.

One thing England does have is a host of young props coming through the system to further enhance a pack that is slowly taking an ominously efficient shape. They will surely bully some unfortunate opponents into submission over the next five weeks.

Maro Itoje has a lot on his shoulders as England's momentum changer, line-out guru and now their leader. He will deal with match officials better than Owen Farrell but that is a low bar. Borthwick can't pick Jack Willis (because he plays his club rugby overseas with Toulouse) but he has whistled up brother Tom for the bench in Dublin, who has been ripping up trees at No 8 for Saracens this season. Meanwhile, both Curry twins starting at six and seven for England will test the commentators' eyesight and, for that matter, the referees'.

The point is, England has the personnel to beat pretty much anyone, but Borthwick must settle on what style of rugby he wants from his team and, having backed Marcus Smith for the opener, he should stick with the live-wire ten for the rest of the tournament. Questions remain over full-back Freddie Steward's attacking capabilities, given he occupies a position that is granted more time/space than any other on the pitch, but he may yet surprise us.

Above all the usual Six Nations story lines lies the prospect of a summer Down Under with Andy Farrell's British and Irish Lions squad. I have already offered my first attempt at the Lions' starting Test XV and it will be, with injuries and form fluctuations, so laughably wide of the mark that I may well keep it and publish on the morning of the first Test. I have six Irish forwards and four Scottish backs to give you a flavour, three Englishmen, no Welsh starters.

There is much at stake over the next seven weeks, Lions' places, pride and, far from the least relevant, gainful employment.

You fancy Borthwick will need to win a minimum of three games to keep his place because he is chugging along with a 50 percent win ratio to date (Eddie Jones finished on 73 percent)

Gatland will need to win one, maybe two, if he  is to extend his stay in Wales. It's been beyond him thus far but Townsend must beat Ireland or David Nucifora will be holding his feet to the fire. Fabien Galthie is safe because there is no one waiting in the wings and because the French focus is firmly on that unattainable Rugby World Cup rather than just the Six Nations.

Ireland's Simon Easterby also has a free pass but only because he is a stand-in rather than a permanent fixture. Ironically if Ireland lose a couple of games, their regular coach Farrell would only cement his position.

Enjoy the sports while you still can on terrestrial TV.

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6N: Scotland v Italy: Stafford McDowall gets the nod at inside-centre

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