Stormers, Lions in crisis mode

01/27/2025 03:52 AM

OPINION: The Stormers and Lions face an uphill battle to qualify for the United Rugby Championship quarterfinals.

The Springboks may be the best Test side on the planet, but the South African franchises trail their European counterparts by some distance.

The recently concluded pool phase of the Champions Cup provided some perspective, with the Bulls, Sharks, and Stormers failing to qualify for the elite European tournament's play-offs.

While the Bulls and Sharks will have another shot at a title in the Challenge Cup, the Stormers - who finished dead last in their pool - will watch the European clashes from the comfort of their homes in Cape Town.

It feels wrong to say so, but winning the Champions Cup is not a South African priority at this point.

South Africa's top players are subjected to a never-ending season, and coaches must prioritise some games over others.

Right now, the local teams are focused on the URC - if not the title itself, then a top-eight finish at the very least.

The latter guarantees a spot in the subsequent Champions Cup tournament and significant financial and commercial benefits.

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Jake White and John Plumtree will be reasonably pleased with where their respective sides stand at the halfway stage of the URC.

Leinster - who are unbeaten after 10 matches - are well placed to finish at the top of the standings and nail down home advantage for the play-offs.

But if the Bulls (currently in third place and with two games in hand), as well as the Sharks (fourth with one in hand), kick on from here, they could host knockout matches in Pretoria and Durban respectively - and increase the likelihood of the URC title returning to South Africa for the first time since 2022.

What are the odds of the Stormers repeating their 2022 heroics, and reclaiming that title?

Much has changed over the past three seasons.

While the Cape franchise is starting to get its house in order, and has put long-term plans in place to boost performance across the competitions, the team is struggling and currently ranks 12th in the URC.

Back in 2022, the Stormers did enough to earn home advantage for the quarter- and semifinals - and were done a favour by the Bulls, who beat Leinster in Dublin in the other penultimate clash.

The Cape side made the most of those home fixtures and won their first-ever inter-continental trophy.

Right now, John Dobson and his coaching staff will worry less about hosting a play-off and more about qualifying.

At best, the Stormers will travel extensively for the knockout phase. At worst, they will miss out altogether, and spend the next season in Challenge Cup purgatory.

If they do scrape through to the play-offs, they will have cause to believe that they can go all the way. Munster travelled for all three play-offs in 2023 and even managed to beat the Stormers in Cape Town in the decider.

The big question is how the Stormers are going to get their campaign back on track.

The good news is that they won't travel overseas again until late March. The bad news is that they will have to navigate a series of brutal derbies - and without a host of senior players.

The Stormers are already without Steven Kitshoff and Damian Willemse, who are both out with long-term injuries. Manie Libbok left the field with a knee problem in Dublin this past Saturday, and may also need to sit out for an extended period.

While the Bulls and Sharks have injury problems of their own, they aren't short on good alternatives.

There's been a lot of talk over the past few weeks regarding South Africa's depth.

While it's true that the franchises don't have the quality in depth to compete with European giants like Leinster or Toulouse, the likes of the Bulls and Sharks have developed squads with the potential to succeed in the URC.

The Bulls will be favourites to win three or even four of the coming South African derbies - three of which will be staged at Loftus Versfeld.

The Sharks may have something to say about the clash in Pretoria, given that they beat the Bulls recently in Durban. John Plumtree's side will expect to win the two derbies against the Lions.

The Stormers have had the wood on the Bulls in recent years, but injuries and recent form suggest that the next couple of matches may yield very different results.

If they lose to the Lions at Ellis Park, they will be under immense pressure to bank maximum points from the tour to Scarlets and Ulster in late March.

The Lions narrowly missed out on play-off qualification last season.

Much has been said about their ambition to finish in the top eight this season, yet here they are at the halfway stage, with a 50 percent win-record and a log position of13th.

It may be encouraging to note that the Lions are only five log points behind Edinburgh (eighth place) and have two games in hand.

But if they don't generate some momentum in the coming derbies, that gap between themselves and the top eight will continue to grow, and their chances of qualification will diminish.

The Lions boast some impressive individuals, and the likes of Quan Horn, Edwill van der Merwe, Morné van den Berg and Ruan Venter are playing with real confidence at present.

It's not hard to understand why they were selected by the Boks last season, or why they are part of Rassie Erasmus' long-term plans in the lead-up to the 2027 World Cup.

But the Lions don't have as much depth as some of the other South African teams, and injuries to key individuals will hit them hard in the later rounds.

They have to strike over the next two months and claim some big South African scalps.

They can't leave themselves with too much to do on a tour to Cardiff and Glasgow in late March - the beginning of a longer sojourn, given that they have qualified for the Challenge Cup quarter-final against Edinburgh in the Scottish capital on 4 April.

The URC will take a break this week, and the respective coaches will have more time to plan for a set of derby fixtures that could make or break their season.

At a glance, it appears as if the Bulls and Sharks are best placed to consolidate, while the Stormers and Lions are in danger of suffering further setbacks.

The Stormers have the most to lose, given that a series of defeats may cost them a play-off spot - and Champions Cup qualification - for the first time.

With all that in mind, there will be an extra edge to the South African derbies over the next two months, with at least one team scrapping for survival.

@rugby365com

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