Scotland v Italy - teams and prediction

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ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Scotland and Italy are set to face off in what promises to be a fascinating clash in the 2025 Six Nations at Murrayfield on Saturday.

Both teams enter this contest with plenty to prove, making this encounter pivotal in the context of the Championship.

The hosts finished fourth for the fourth time in five years in the last edition of this competition, while Italy showed tremendous improvement, finishing just one point behind them in fifth.

With the home advantage and facing a favourable opponent, the hosts will be determined to make a solid start and pick up a bonus point before welcoming the Shamrocks to Edinburgh next weekend.

Last year was one that Italian fans will look back on fondly, as they saw their team make giant strides forward, going unbeaten in their final three games of the Six Nations, winning two and drawing one.

Italy upset Gregor Townsend's men in Rome last year but getting a result at Murrayfield is a much tougher prospect.

One of those victories came against the Scots (31-29) at Stadio Olimpico, while on either side of that they held France to an incredible 13-13 draw in Lille and stunned Wales 24-21 at the Millenium Stadium in the final week of the competition.

Not only did those results help the Azzurri hand over the Wooden Spoon after eight consecutive seasons, but it also marked the first time they avoided defeat in three successive matches since joining the competition back in 2000.

Victories over Tonga and Japan in July followed by a November triumph against Georgia meant that Gonzalo Quesada's men ended 2024 with five wins in total - the third straight year in which they won at least four games - which is a significant achievement considering they had not won more than three matches in a calendar year since 2012.

For the Azzurri, this year will likely be focused on proving that their recent success is not just a fleeting moment, but a sign that they are truly turning into a formidable force on the international stage.

Scotland needs to target a bonus point but they can't afford to take their visitors lightly and almost certainly won't as this group of Italian players really starts to come into its own at Test level.

If the scales are tipped in Scotland's favour on the historical front, it's worth recalling that Italy ruined Scotland's party in 2024.

The Scots, high off the back of victories against Wales and England (and a narrow loss to France) had every right to think they could win in Rome.

Never before has Italy gone back-to-back with wins against the Scots, while the hosts' best run is a 13-match winning streak from 2015 to 2023.

This will be the third time Scotland has faced Italy in Round One, after 2000 (lost 20-34) and 2019 (won 33-20).

Scotland will enter the match buoyed by their recent performances under head coach Gregor Townsend. Their recent campaign featured impressive wins against Australia, Portugal, and Fiji, with Finn Russell and Darcy Graham spearheading their attacking play.

The Scots have built a reputation for fast-paced rugby and robust defensive structures, making them a tough side to break down.

Italy made significant strides under Gonzalo Quesada, evident in the 2024 Six Nations, with historic victories over Scotland, and Wales, and a draw against France.

The 29-31 defeat in Rome last year was a sharp reminder of the progress Italy has made following a litany of losses that led to questions over their future in the event.

"It derailed our tournament a bit," said Scotland back-row Matt Fagerson.

"Credit to Italy, they did really well at home last year so hopefully, we're going to turn it around."

Scotland, for all the talent of a side featuring flyhalf Finn Russell and record try-scorer Duhan van der Merwe, have long been on the cusp of something special only to be undone by their own errors.

Scotland coach Gregor Townsend has recalled Jonny Gray for the veteran Bordeaux lock's first Test in nearly two years.

Gray, 30, missed the 2023 World Cup with a knee injury and declined a call-up for the November international series after returning to club action at the start of this season.

Azzurri coach Gonzalo Quesada has named Perpignan's Tommaso Allan at fullback, allowing Toulouse speedster Ange Capuozzo to move to the wing.

Italy's record points-scorer in the Six Nations, Allan stepped away from Azzurri action after a narrow 27-24 defeat by England in last season's tournament, citing his mental and physical well-being.

Back-row Michele Lamaro, who completed a record 103 tackles in the 2024 campaign, retains the Italy captaincy.

"The most important thing for us is to keep improving, keep going in that direction," said Lamaro. "There are a lot of expectations on us, now the other teams are looking at us differently."

Players to watch

Regular starter Juan Ignacio Brex is vital for his side. He is a real stalwart for the Azzurri as he started 42 out of his country's last 44 Tests and played every minute during last year's impressive Six Nations campaign.

Key to Quesada's chances will be the centre partnership of Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello, last year's player of the tournament. They also have dangerous backs in Tommaso Allan, Monty Ioane, and Ange Capuozzo. Martin Page-Relo and Paolo Garbisi are the half-backs selected to pull the strings.

For Scotland: Newly named co-captains Rory Darge and Finn Russell, who have firmly made their presence known in the 2024-25 Champions Cup season, will be crucial to Scotland's campaign.

As one of Scotland's best rugby players, Russell needs no introduction. He is a strong contributor on both sides of the ball - boasting 21 tackles and a turnover as well.

Record try-scorer Van der Merwe returns, boasting 31 tries for Scotland. He had been sidelined with an ankle sprain, missing two matches for Edinburgh but he is back.

Zander Fagerson is one of the most powerful scrummaging tighthead props in the Northern Hemisphere. He is a true workhorse too as he hammers into countless rucks and tackles as he powers through a massive workload, often doing so well beyond the time international prop's numbers are called.

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Prediction:

@rugby365com: Scotland by nine points

Teams:

Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (co-captain), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge (co-captain), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Kyle Rowe.

Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Matin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Simone Gesi.

Date: Saturday, February 1
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 14.15 (15.15 Italian time; 14.15 GMT)
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant referees: Luke Pearce (England) & Damian Schneider (Argentina)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

Additional source @SixNations