URC Supercomputer: Leinster predicted to be 2024/25 URC champions ahead of Irish rivals Munster
09/20/2024 05:00 AM
Leinster are projected to be crowned league champions for the first time in the United Rugby Championship era, according to predictions from a new Supercomputer. The boffins at Grosvenor Sport have given Leo Cullen's side a 55.7 percent chance of winning the tournament as they're also predicted to finish top of the regular season table.
Defending champions Glasgow Warriors are the second-favourites to defend their title with a 24.5 percent chance of lifting the trophy. Meanwhile, Munster are projected to finish second in regular season but will fail to reach the Grand Final. Graham Rowntree's side are given a slim 10.3% chance of going all the way, according to the Supercomputer.
The Bulls are also expected to make the semi-finals as the best performing South African side. However, the Bulls have just a 9.2 percent likelihood of winning the overall URC title.
Predicted2024/25 United Rugby Championship Regular Season Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | PF | PA | PD | TB | LB | Pts |
| 1 | Leinster | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 619 | 373 | 246 | 11 | 1 | 74 |
| 2 | Munster | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 521 | 382 | 139 | 11 | 1 | 66 |
| 3 | Bulls | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 542 | 376 | 166 | 9 | 2 | 65 |
| 4 | Glasgow Warriors | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 548 | 371 | 177 | 10 | 4 | 64 |
| 5 | Stormers | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 502 | 385 | 117 | 9 | 3 | 62 |
| 6 | Ulster | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 476 | 432 | 44 | 6 | 5 | 55 |
| 7 | Lions | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 448 | 446 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 52 |
| 8 | Ospreys | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 453 | 429 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 51 |
| 9 | Edinburgh | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 461 | 433 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 49 |
| 10 | Benetton | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 450 | 440 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 44 |
| 11 | Connacht | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 429 | 469 | -40 | 4 | 1 | 39 |
| 12 | Sharks | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 440 | 450 | -10 | 4 | 8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 415 | 504 | -89 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 14 | Scarlets | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 385 | 537 | -152 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 15 | Dragons | 18 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 345 | 605 | -260 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 16 | Zebre Parma | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 296 | 698 | -402 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Making up the play-off places, Ospreys are projected to pip Edinburgh to a top eight spot with Stormers, Ulster and the Lions joining the Welsh side in the knockout stages. There's also a 18.75 percent chance of a repeat of last year’s final between Bulls and Glasgow Warriors.
How does the SuperComputer work?
The Grosvenor Sport SuperComputer is a probability model, not determined by human predictions or bias. What happens is the SuperComputer estimates the outcome of each remaining fixture based on a team's current strength (based on factors such as league position and form) and betting market odds.
The machine then simulates the remaining games in a season 10,000 times and constructs an average league table from the ensuing simulations, to rule out anomalous results.
Of the 10,000 simulations which were run, Italian outift Zebre Parma finished bottom of the table every single time.
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