Springboks' top dog status under threat

11/14/2024 03:27 PM

SPOTLIGHT: South Africa could relinquish the #1 spot as Ireland and New Zealand could climb to the top after this weekend's Test matches.

With every team in the top 10 in action, a lot of movement can be expected this weekend.

As many as three teams – South Africa, New Zealand and Ireland – could finish the weekend at number one in the World Rugby rankings.

However, South Africa are guaranteed to stay on top if they beat England at Twickenham Stadium on Saturday.

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New Zealand will replace South Africa at number one if they beat France at the Stade de France and the Springboks fail to win. It would be the first time the All Blacks sit atop the rankings since the World Cup 2019 semifinal.

Ireland need to beat Argentina in the weekend's opening Nations Series match on Friday and hope that both South Africa and New Zealand lose if they are to immediately return to number one in the world.

Back-to-back home defeats for Ireland will see them slip another place to fourth if the margin is by more than 15 points and both South Africa and New Zealand are victorious.

In this scenario Argentina will climb two places to third and make up the first all-southern hemisphere top three since November 8, 2021 (then New Zealand, South Africa, Australia).

Ireland will drop two places for the second week running – to fifth – if they lose by more than 15 points and France repeat their Rugby World Cup 2023 opening match victory over New Zealand. This will be regardless of the England-South Africa result.

With Scotland unable to improve their rating by beating Portugal this weekend – as a result of the 13.88 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in – then England only need to draw with South Africa to displace their Calcutta Cup rivals in sixth.

England cannot go any higher, though, even if beat the world champions by more than 15 points as the gap between themselves and a beaten France or Argentina is too large to overcome.

Australia's forward momentum could continue this weekend, but they would need to beat Wales by more than 15 points in Cardiff and England to lose by the same margin.

This would lift the Wallabies above England into seventh, but they could jump another place if Scotland also fail to beat Portugal in Edinburgh. Eighth for England would equal their lowest-ever position.

For Italy to recover one of the two places they lost in defeat to Argentina last weekend, they need to beat Georgia and hope that Fiji slip up against the lower-ranked Spain.