Varsity Cup road to the play-offs: Do or die for Shimlas, Wits

03/26/2025 02:59 AM

SPOTLIGHT: The Shimlas head into the final round of the Varsity Cup needing a win against Tuks to advance to the play-offs, while Wits require a miracle to avoid relegation.

Tuks have impressed since returning to the Varsity Cup this season and made the ultimate statement when they ended Maties' five-game winning streak in Stellenbosch this past Monday.

The result has propelled the Pretoria side to the top of the standings with one round remaining in the league phase.

While Tuks and Maties have already qualified for the play-offs, it remains to be seen who will finish in first place, who else will secure play-off qualification, and whether UJ or Wits will be relegated to the Shield.

The final round of league matches will be staged next Monday.

UJ will host UCT in Johannesburg at 16.45, while Tuks will battle Shimlas in Pretoria at 19.00.

The other two matches – NWU Eagles against CUT in Potchefstroom, and Wits against Maties in Johannesburg – will also be played in the latter timeslot.

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TOP-FOUR PICTURE TAKES SHAPE

Where they finish, and ultimately where they play in the semifinals, will be determined by other results.

Tuks and Maties will go into their respective matches as favourites – but it remains to be seen whether they can win those matches and whether they can win well enough to clinch a top-place finish.

Tuks will start the final round with 26 log points. If they beat the Shimlas with a bonus point, they will finish at the top of the standings – and secure home advantage for the play-offs.

If they don't win with a bonus point, they may be surpassed by Maties – provided that the Stellenbosch side claims a full house of log points and wins by a substantial margin against Wits.

As things stand, Tuks (84) have the edge over Maties (75) in terms of points difference, and it's worth noting that Wits have lost all six matches to date.

Of course, if Shimlas beat Tuks in Pretoria, Maties will only need four points from the visit to Wits to finish at the top of the standings.

The battle for third and fourth spot will be particularly brutal, and it's likely that the Shimlas or Eagles will fail to make the play-off cut.

UCT could miss out, if they lose to UJ, and if the Shimlas and Eagles win their respective matches (NWU also boast a more favourable points-difference at this stage).

But it's hard to see the Ikeys losing to a UJ side that has a record of one win from six.

The Eagles should beat CUT at home, and improve their chances of qualification.

They will hope that Tuks do them a favour by beating the Shimlas. However, given that both matches will be staged at the same time, they should be going all out to secure a four-try bonus point as well as a substantial winning margin.

Shimlas, who won the tournament last season, are currently in fourth place on 17 log points.

Knowing that CUT are unlikely to storm the Eagles' fortress, they simply have to win at Tuks in order to qualify for the knockouts.

But a win may not be enough for the defending champions. If Shimlas edge Tuks and the Eagles claim a bonus-point victory, both teams will finish on 21 log points.

Of course, if UJ deny UCT any log points, and the aforementioned scenarios play out in Pretoria and Potch, then three teams will finish the league with the same number of log points.

At this stage, the defending champions have the worst points difference (-22) of the three sides.

THE RELEGATION ZONE

They may well avoid the relegation zone, barring an upset win for UJ over UCT.

Such an outcome would boost UJ's log tally to 12 points, and lift the side into sixth place.

In that event, CUT would need at least one log point from their game against the Eagles – which will be played after the UJ-UCT match in Johannesburg.

A more likely outcome will see UJ finishing seventh, and facing the Madibaz in a promotion-relegation battle at a later stage.

It's not looking good for Wits, who sit in eighth place and face the prospect of automatic relegation.

The team will be watching the first fixture of the round closely. If UJ manage to beat UCT, then Wits' fate will be sealed, regardless of what happens in their final match against Maties.

But if UCT prevent UJ from claiming any points from that fixture, then Wits' destiny will be in their own hands. If Wits go on to beat Maties, they will move ahead of UJ in the standings.

That would result in UJ getting the chop, and Wits surviving to fight another day – at least until the promotion-relegation battle against the second-placed Shield side.

UP FOR PROMOTION

Meanwhile, the Varsity Shield league phase will reach a climax later this week.

Varsity College, the Madibaz, CPUT and UWC have already qualified for the play-offs.

The final round of regular season matches will determine where these teams finish, and who advances their cause for promotion to the Varsity Cup.

It's an especially tight race, with five log points separating the log-leaders and the fourth-placed team.

Varsity College are currently three points ahead of the Madibaz.

If College beat WSU at home on Thursday – with or without a bonus point – they will take an assailable lead at the top of the Shield standings.

In that scenario, Varsity College will earn automatic promotion to the Cup, and make their premier league debut in 2026.

This seems likely, given that their opponents have won one of their six games to date.

The battle between the Madibaz and CPUT in Port Elizabeth on Friday could well determine who finishes in second place – and ultimately who features in the promotion-relegation fixture against the seventh-placed Cup team.

The Madibaz are currently one point ahead of CPUT in the standings, and two points ahead of UWC.

If the Madibaz beat CPUT on Friday, they will move up to 28 points and finish in second place, regardless of what transpires in the later game between UWC and SPU in Kimberley.

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