The Lock Index

Yesterday at 10:24 AM

The Gray and Gilchrist partnership has been much discussed and oft maligned during this year’s Six Nations tournament. Thankfully the introduction of Gregor Brown in Gray’s place for the final game against France seemed to add aggression and dynamism and coupled with Gilchrist having his best game of the tournament offered a real improvement.

With Gray not impressing over the piece, stalwart Gilchrist now aged 34 and Brown himself stating he sees himself at 6 long term, I thought I would have a look at the options for the future open to Townsend from a domestic form point of view.

All data used below is based on Rugbypass stats for the 24/25 season inclusive of URC, Top 14  (Gray), Pro D2 (Johnson), English Premiership (Henderson and Hodgson) and European Cup games. Unfortunately Challenge Cup stats were not available for Edinburgh players.

All applicable stats have been translated into "per 80 minutes" for a fairer comparison. Metres made are metres made post contact specifically, as these should give us a better of idea of how much go forward is being provided. Generally for my thoughts I’ve grouped metres made with tackle % as impact, tackles and carries per 80 as workrate stats, defenders beaten and dominant tackles as physicality and then the lineout stats and penalty stats on their own. I didn’t include turnovers as there wasn’t much variation.

The matrix works by ranking each player from 1 to 15 (1 best and 15 worse) based on performance in each metric. The lock index stat is just for fun and is the average of all of these rankings, so therefore the lower the score the better. This isn’t supposed to be something you can use to judge these players in isolation but in an ideal world with more data available, a greater sample and additional logic/weighting it could be the basis of something more advanced or useful!

Usual caveats apply, this is an indicative view only as the stats available don’t cover everything e.g. rucks hit, offloads and so on so won’t tell the whole story. Some players e.g. Glen Young haven’t played as many minutes, some players will have played more challenging opposition than others and some players e.g. Brown (5/6 starts this season at lock) and Ferrie (2/6 starts this season at lock) have also have appeared in the backrow. Additionally teams may use players differently for example if Edinburgh spread their lineout jumpers across the back 5 more then their locks may have lower numbers. We’re looking at this season only so this will be biased towards recent form.

But we’ve got a reasonable sample and a nice mix of stats so this should hopefully make for an interesting view that gives us some insight into recent form and the style of play of each of the players.

This first view contains the actual stats:

And this is the heatmap:

I’m going to more or less ignore Glen Young because although he scores very highly, he’s played the lowest number of minutes. Maybe this is unfair but if we revisit this at the end of the season it will be interesting to see if he maintains the strong performance so far.

I’ll start with the player with the best index score, which is Gregor Brown at 5.7. Straight away it’s clear to see why Brown has fought his way into the Scotland side, nobody makes more tackles, his tackle success rate is only beaten by Alex Craig and his carrying frequency and metres per carry are high as well. He also shows up well in the physicality stakes ranking highly for defenders beaten and dominant tackles. He’s only really let down by poor discipline, coming in last for penalties conceded. He may be a 6 who can play lock but he offers a superb workrate and a good level of physicality and Townsend hasn’t ignored his form. Long term though is he big enough to play lock at the top level? His performance against France certainly backs up previous big games for Glasgow suggesting he’s more than capable.

In contrast Grant Gilchrist comes in dead last with the poorest lock index score. To give him some credit he brings experience and is known to hit a high rate of rucks which the heatmap doesn’t capture. He’s also top dog for lineout steals and doesn’t let anyone down at the setpiece in general. An improved game against France aside Gilchrist has been much maligned for his lack of ball carrying impact during the 6N though and looking at his domestic stats this should surprise nobody, the lowest post contact metre numbers of anyone, low numbers for defenders beaten and maybe more surprisingly very average defensive stats too with a low tackle completion rate especially. His defensive stats last season were much better though his carrying numbers not much different to this. He is getting on at 35 and maybe age is starting to take a toll but Townsend clearly values his experience, contribution to the set piece and leadership for now, and his defence has been very strong for Scotland too. He’s played above his domestic numbers in fact and Edinburgh could certainly do with Gilchrist bringing his Scotland form back with him.

There could be an argument that he’s played for an abject Edinburgh side which hasn’t helped him as well so it’s worth a quick look at Marshall Sykes who put in a solid if unmemorable cameo against France. Whilst he carries frequently he’s not much more effective than Gilchrist but where he does shine is in defence. Only Jonny Gray (of course) and Glasgow’s pair of backrow/lock hybrids make more tackles and Sykes leads the way for dominant hits emphasising his physical impact on games. His discipline is also outstanding and this is worthy of a call out given in the past I’ve seen him get stick for this element of his game. I think Sykes' callup surprised some but I don’t think it should have and given the lack of impact from Scotland’s second row it may not have hurt to have given him more of a run out previously at some point especially when 6 forwards were picked on the bench and Skinner was barely back from injury.

Gray himself comes in somewhere towards the lower middle of the road with only his tackle stats standing out, unsurprisingly given this is Jonny Gray afterall. Gray's defence has always been his strength but unfortunately it looks like the rest of his game isn’t faring strongly in France and his poor meters made numbers and lack of defenders beaten have, again unsurprisingly, meant he didn’t look the right match for Gilchrist who more clearly offers more elsewhere than big Jonny. Gray is still only 31 and has been hit with injuries in recent times, and you also can’t knock his workrate or determination so he shouldn’t be written off completely. Personally I think we need more athleticism and abrasiveness than he offered in the Six Nations.

Of our other options it’s interesting to think about who could have been an alternative for the Gilchrist/Gray combination or whom could figure in the future.

Cummings is the obvious shout had he been fit and his numbers put him in the middle of the pack for most metrics with strong lineout numbers indicating he’s a go to man at the set piece but surprisingly low carry and tackle numbers per 80, especially when considering these numbers were outstanding last season. Whilst he’s not carried or tackled as frequently as some though his metres made stat as well as number of dominant hits and defenders beaten are solid indicating he’s still been effective. His overall index number though is level with Sykes and not bettered by many (basically just Ferrie and Brown who benefit from minutes in the backrow and extremely high workrate and Young who has played the lowest number of minutes). 

This perhaps reflecting that few locks can actually contribute to a high level across all aspects of the role and Cummings is quite a solid contributor in all the aspects we’ve looked at. The all court lock who can marshall the lineout, top tackle stats and make consistent hard yards is perhaps a rare beast and we might not have one available, Cummings may be closest though especially if his workrate returns to previous levels which is hopefully likely when he returns to fitness given previous excellence. Sam Skinner could potentially fall into a similar bracket as he’s in the past been a very physical and hardworking player but even giving some allowance for injury his form seems a long way from his best this season for both club and country.

To illustrate how rare these all rounders are, I’ll mention a couple of other players who come out reasonably strongly but have clear weak areas. 

Alex Craig has really strong defensive numbers and looks an effective carrier in terms of metres made but isn’t much of a lineout option and isn’t a frequent carrier. Could be a useful option if partnered with someone who can run the lineout?

Hodgson is a good lineout option (recently given high praise by Pat Lam for his lineout ability too) and has good work rate numbers but low metres made, defenders beaten and dominant hits suggest he doesn’t have Craig’s physicality and I think physicality has proven a must at the top level.

Ewan Johnson scores reasonably strongly across a few areas, though is the only player playing in the French second tier, with it being Pro D2 I’m not sure whether to count his high penalty rate against him or accept its part and parcel of that league! He’s moving to the Top 14 next season and got a handful of minutes against France so is one to keep an eye on. 

Alex Samuel’s discipline has been superb and he’s a very strong lineout option but isn’t offering much at all as a ball carrier this season which looks to be a clear weakness he’ll need to improve to some extent.

Williamson who has also been missed through injury is really interesting almost in contrast to Cummings as well, really clearly not offering the same all round impact but specialising in certain areas. His numbers are also very consistent with last season by the way. His defence is pretty average to be honest and that should be a work on but his effectiveness ball in hand tops the charts (ignoring Young) with 2 post contact metres on average and the most defenders beaten on average. Like Craig he’s not really a lineout option meaning you’d have to consider his partner and the backrow carefully if picked. He’d clearly improve the ball carrying aspect of the side which has looked lacking though might not be an obvious all round upgrade in isolation. 

A Craig and Williamson pairing as an example would be a massive upgrade in carrying and physicality but we’d likely struggle come lineout time!

Also interesting is Oguntibeju who has seized his opportunity at Glasgow in the absence of the likes of Williamson. Nobody carries more often and few make more dominant hits clearly showing his impact and how he could be a point of difference in the future. However many of his other stats lag behind reflecting that whilst he’s immensely promising he’s still a rough diamond with much hard work ahead of him.

Last player I’ll mention is Henderson, someone who has been feeling his way back from injury and the only player (bar Hodgson’s loan) who plays in England. His post contact metres and lineout stats reflect the image I have of him in my head – lineout specialist with a decent carrying game. I think it’s clear to see why Townsend hasn’t picked him though – in terms of workrate and defence he’s probably not where he’d target when fully fit and we know Townsend values both aspects strongly.

I feel like we actually have quite a good array of options at second row though crucially the experience in terms of caps is very scant beyond Gilchrist, Gray, Cummings and Skinner (who I haven’t mentioned much on account of his below par form and injuries but whom also shouldn’t be written off). We could do with everyone staying fit – Cummings, Williamson, Gray, Skinner and Henderson have all suffered this season and it will be interesting to see who goes on the Summer tour. It’s unlikely any will tour with the Lions.

Personally I’d rest Gilchrist and Gray and look to use Brown at 6 where he’d offer a combination of size and aggression at blindside we don’t always have available. Williamson and Cummings would be a good starting partnership with Cummings commanding the lineout and Williamson offering physicality. Henderson’s lineout expertise could then be ideal to back up Cummings while Sykes, Johnson and Craig could all offer something behind Williamson as well and that should be a good competition. If Oguntibeju continues on his current trajectory he could be in contention as well…

I’ll stop there and hope you find the matrix interesting, I’m interested myself in any feedback, like I say it’s supposed to be a bit of fun and it’s something I’ve knocked up in a sheet on my phone so not super serious. I’m also interested in any observations from others on the data and whether my conclusions match other's thoughts!

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