Varsity Cup's play-off race & relegation scrap take shape

Today at 02:07 AM

SPOTLIGHT: We're four rounds into the 2025 Varsity Cup, and a clear front-runner has emerged.

Maties are on track to host a Varsity Cup semifinal after four rounds, while UJ and Wits are in the relegation zone.

The Stellenbosch-based university, Maties, have claimed four bonus-point wins to date, and sit at the top of the table.

Kabamba Floors' charges made a statement when they edged the Shimlas – the 2024 champions – 41-37 in the first round.

They then went up to Potchefstroom to tackle the NWU Eagles – the 2023 champions – and managed to hold on for 29-27 victory.

Since then, Maties have cracked on to secure a 54-0 win over CUT and a 25-7 victory over UJ.

Barring an implosion of epic proportions over the next three rounds, they should finish in the top-two, and a host a semifinal.

The usual suspects are in contention for the remaining play-off berths.

As things stand, Tuks are at second on the log with 17 points, UCT third with 15, Shimlas fourth with 12 and the Eagles fifth with 11.

Tuks have been the surprise package, at least in the context of their recent stint in the Varsity Shield.

Dewey Swartbooi's side romped to bonus-point wins against Wits and UJ, before losing 29-36 to the Ikeys in Cape Town. More recently, they picked up a 63-26 win against CUT in Bloem.

Tuks' schedule for the next three weeks, however, looks a lot tougher.

Two of their matches will be played in Pretoria, but they will be up against the Eagles and Shimlas, who will both be desperate for a full house of points.

A visit to Stellenbosch on 24 March may reveal whether Tuks have what it takes to challenge for the Cup title – just a year after winning the Shield.

If they win all three of their remaining matches, they may well finish at the top of the standings. But if they drop all three, they may miss out on the play-offs altogether.

UCT opted to play fewer warm-up matches, and have taken some time to hit their stride in the 2025 Varsity Cup.

They barely got over the line in the third-round clash against Tuks, although they were far more convincing in the recent 73-17 thrashing of Wits.

The next match will be a massive one in isolation, given the history between Stellenbosch and UCT.

What's more, the result will have a profound impact on the standings.

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Tuks will hope that UCT can stop the Maties juggernaut at the Danie Craven Stadium next Monday. The Shimlas and Eagles, on the other hand, will hope that the Ikeys suffer a campaign-damaging loss, and drop down the table.

The Ikeys will play Shimlas on the Green Mile thereafter and then UJ in Johannesburg in the final round.

If they win in Stellenbosch, they may crack on to clinch the next two games and surge up the table.

If they lose, however, they will face a fight for a play-off berth. Even if they finish third or fourth, they may be forced to travel extensively in the knock-out rounds – as they did last season, where they ended up losing the Final against the Shimlas in the dying moments.

The Shimlas and Eagles have work to do if they're going to turn their respective campaigns around.

Since losing a close opening game in Stellenbosch, the defending champs have blown red hot – with a 59-29 win against Wits and a 49-45 victory against UJ – and then ice cold – with the recent 14-59 defeat against the Eagles in Potch.

The Shimlas should bounce back against CUT next week, but may struggle to pick up the points when they head to Cape Town and Pretoria thereafter.

Like UCT, the Eagles are starting to build momentum after a poor start to the competition.

They may have their work cut out for them when they visit Tuks next week, but will expect to win their last two matches against UJ and CUT – given that both of those games will be staged at the Fanie du Toit Sports Ground in Potch.

CUT were docked five log points for fielding an ineligible player against UJ in the first round, and that will compromise their quest to finish in the top four for the first time in Varsity Cup history.

Indeed, if they lose their remaining matches, they may find themselves in that automatic relegation slot.

The clash against Wits in Bloem on 24 March could be decisive, and the Ixias will be desperate to secure some points from their other matches against the Shimlas and Eagles.

UJ and CUT have three log points apiece after four rounds, and are in the danger zone.

The team that finishes in seventh place will face the second-placed team in the Varsity Shield in a promotion-relegation battle, with the victor advancing to the 2026 Varsity Cup.

The side that finishes dead last, however, will drop down to the Shield.

UJ lost an important match to CUT at the start of the season, but have remained in touch with the Bloemfontein-based side, due to the fact that CUT was penalised for their management gaffe in that fixture.

Since then, UJ has lost to Tuks, the Shimlas and Maties.

The next game at Wits could be a final of sorts, with the victors finishing the round in seventh position, and the losers in that automatic relegation slot.

UJ will play the Eagles in Potch and UCT in Johannesburg thereafter. With this in mind, it's fair to say that the Wits fixture represents UJ's best shot at a victory in the 2025 campaign.

Wits have struggled this season, but may buoyed by the fact that this massive game will be staged on home soil.

They may yet surprise in the penultimate round against CUT – and move clear of the relegation zone completely – but shouldn't be looking beyond the next clash against UJ.

Wits also possess a vastly inferior points-difference at this stage (-118) compared to UJ (-46).

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