Road to the play-offs: Sharks may pip Bulls in race for URC 'top spot'
Today at 05:11 AM
SPOTLIGHT: The Sharks look set to finish ahead of the Bulls in the United Rugby Championship standings, while all four franchises could qualify for the play-offs for the first time in the tournament's history.
The recent clash between the Sharks and Lions in Durban brought the curtain down on the derby phase of the URC season.
While the Sharks claimed an important 25-22 win, the Lions emerged from the contest with a valuable bonus point.
As a result, three South African franchises currently occupy the top eight positions on the URC table, with six rounds remaining in the league phase.
Come the play-offs, all four local teams may be involved for the very first time.
[rp-mc-game id="204|942322|2025"][/rp-mc-game]
[rp-mc-game id="204|942324|2025"][/rp-mc-game]
What does this say about the strength of the South African franchises?
All four have blown hot and cold to some degree over the course of the season. At this stage, it's hard to see any of those teams challenging the likes of Leinster for the title, especially in a play-off staged in Dublin.
That said, the URC has served up a number of surprising play-off results over the past three years. Having as many as four local teams in the knockouts – with two playing the first and possibly the second round at home – will boost the chances of a South African team lifting that unique trophy for the first time since 2022.
How are all four teams going to finish in the top eight?
It remains to be seen how the Bulls, Lions and Sharks will approach the Challenge Cup play-offs in early April. If they focus on the last six rounds of the URC league phase, and target maximum log points from their home matches, they should advance to knockouts.
Apart from Leinster and Glasgow Warriors, who appear destined to finish first and second on the log, the Bulls and Sharks are the front-runners for a home quarterfinal.
It may seem a bold statement, given how these sides stumbled through the recent derbies and missed a golden opportunity to climb the ladder.
Had the Bulls been more clinical, they would have finished that block of matches ahead of the Glasgow in second place. Had the Sharks won back-to-back matches against the Lions, they would be sitting in third rather than fourth.
Both could go on to finish in the top-four, and secure home advantage for the quarterfinals – but the team that finishes fourth may be forced to travel to Dublin for the semis.
As things stand, the Sharks are my best bet for a third-place finish.
John Plumtree should welcome a few more Springboks back in the coming weeks, and – as seen in last year's Challenge Cup campaign – the team should grow stronger as the season builds to a climax.
The Sharks could bank 10 log points from their next two home fixtures against Zebre and Leinster – assuming that the Irish side sends a second-string squad to South Africa, which has been the case in previous seasons, due to their focus on the Champions Cup play-offs.
[rp-mc-game id="204|942329|2025"][/rp-mc-game]
[rp-mc-game id="204|942326|2025"][/rp-mc-game]
It will be interesting to see if the South African teams employ a similar management strategy, and prioritise the URC over the Challenge Cup.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bulls, Lions and Sharks fielding second-string teams in the Challenge Cup Round of 16, and in the subsequent quarterfinals, should any of them advance.
The Sharks face a tricky tour immediately after those Challenge Cup matches, but should target at least four log points from the games in Edinburgh and Belfast.
They will return to South Africa for the last two rounds of the campaign, and will expect to bank eight to 10 points against the Ospreys and Scarlets – given the Welsh teams' struggles in South Africa over the years.
The Bulls have a similar schedule, and will do well to stay in touch with the Sharks.
They should target maximum points against Leinster and Zebre at home – assuming Leinster send a blend of fringe players and rookies to Loftus Versfeld – but may struggle to succeed in away matches against Munster and Glasgow.
Jake White's charges will finish the league with home matches against Cardiff and the Dragons and will expect to win both matches comfortably. By then, they will know exactly what's required to secure a top-four finish.
Considering all of the above, the two-match overseas tour could separate the Sharks and the Bulls, with the former edging the latter by a log point or two.
The story continues below...
The Stormers and Lions, of course, will have more modest ambitions.
Given their early season struggles – and in the case of the Lions, their inability to qualify for the play-offs in previous years – both will be thrilled if they go on to finish in the top eight.
While the Lions (eighth) are ranked above the Stormers (12th) at this stage, the Cape side may leap-frog their Joburg counterparts in the coming weeks.
For starters, the Stormers won't have to worry about dividing their resources to compete across the Challenge Cup play-offs and the URC. After finishing last in their Champions Cup pool, the Stormers have been knocked out of the European tournaments completely.
While they will play fewer matches and travel less than other South African teams, the pressure is on John Dobson and his players to make that opportunity count.
The next match against the Scarlets in Llanelli will be the toughest of their remaining fixtures, although the subsequent clash against Ulster won't be a walk in the park either.
The Stormers have to claim four to five log points from that tour to give themselves a chance of realising their play-off ambitions.
Thereafter, they'll play their last four matches against Connacht, Benetton, the Dragons and Cardiff – all at home.
They can't afford to lose any of those matches, and should be looking to convert each of those wins into a bonus-point victory.
The story continues below...
The Lions will travel to Cardiff and then on to Glasgow, before facing Edinburgh in the first round of the Challenge Cup play-offs.
They may prioritise the URC matches, and it's crucial that they come away from those tough encounters with a log point or two.
Like the Stormers, they will play their last four games at home.
Cash van Rooyen's team has played its best rugby on the highveld, and it's possible that the Lions could claim maximum points against Benetton, Connacht, Scarlets and Ospreys.
All of the above assumes that the South African teams can achieve the kind of consistency that has eluded them for the first 12 matches of their respective campaigns – and to be fair, that's a big ask.
But for now, destiny is in their hands – and the dream of all four franchises in the play-offs is very much alive.
[rp-comp-table data="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"][/rp-comp-table]
